Contrary to some local broadcaster’s declarations Saturday that the Boston Celtics are now undeniably the team to beat in the Eastern Conference, I believe it is much too early to make such declarations. It is after all January 6, 2008 and we’re not even 40% of the way through the season yet. There’s a lot of basketball left to be played.
The series between these two teams is tied at 1 apiece, and at this juncture the Pistons still have to be given the edge in a 7 game playoff series even if only for their sizable advantage in the chemistry and experience playing together departments.
Saturday's victory against the Pistons was solid and impressive. But it was solid and impressive for reasons different than what was presented by the Gary Tanguays and Donny Marshalls of Comcast Sports Net.
Tommy Heinsohn made an excellent observation following Saturday night’s game. In his judgment the Detroit Pistons are still the better of the two teams. But that what the Celtics have to look forward to is the fact that they, moreso than Detroit, have greater room for improvement to make over the course of the season. I share Tommy's assessment and I, as a fan, find myself more excited about the Celtics because of what I think they can be, rather than what they are now.
Saturday night’s victory in Detroit was solid and impressive because I witnessed a very good team continue its education in how to compete and beat an elite team. The greatest success the Boston Celtics have achieved this season has been their ability to not take many nights off. But again that said, they're not an elite team yet.
The Celtics are 29-3 and are presently on an unrealistic pace to win 74 games. To some local prognosticators in the media, to say this 29-3 team isn’t elite flies in the face of sanity; and judging by the numbers this may indeed seem true.
It is way too premature to classify the Celtics as an elite team.
For a team to even begin to be considered an elite team, it needs to beat those teams that are considered to be elite. And in my book those teams are Detroit, San Antonio, and Phoenix. The wannabe contenders are for now the New Orleans Hornets, Dallas Mavericks, Portland Trailblazers, Utah Jazz, Denver Nuggets, Orlando Magic, and the Boston Celtics; the Boston Celtics being the hands down best of the wannabe contenders at the moment.
Boston has faced 3 of the 6 wannabe contenders, and their record is 3-1.
Boston has faced 1 of the 3 elite contenders (Detroit), and is 1-1.
That all said though, even if Boston finishes the season 6-1 against Detroit, San Antonio, and Phoenix combined it will be all for not if Boston fails to make a very deep run in the playoffs.
The 1996 Chicago Bulls are not considered to be one of the greatest teams of all time because they won 72 games in a single season. They’re considered to be one of the greatest teams of all time because they won the title in addition to winning 72 games that season. Win 72 games and not win the title; and you’ve got a team that in years to come should feel lucky if they find themselves part of some fan’s obscure blog discussion on the biggest posers of the past 10 years.
Don’t believe me?
Just ask the 2006-2007 Dallas Mavericks. You wouldn’t know it now, but heading into last season’s playoffs there were many who dubbed the 67 win team as the eventual NBA champion. A couple weeks later Dallas found itself heading home early after being defeated in 6 games by an 8th seed. Two weeks is all it took for Dallas to go from being a perennial championship contender to being the most overrated team in the 2006-2007.
Simply, the verdict is still out on the Boston Celtics despite their remarkable 29-3 run thus far (5 teams in NBA history have started the season out 29-3, only 3 went on to win the title. ) That said though, the Celtics are looking pretty darn good so far and I am enjoying every minute of it.
Breaking down some numbers...
The game can be broken down in many ways. I am going to quickly highlight a few things and then delve into the two areas of the game that stuck out to me the most.
The Celtics have done a very good job making the most of their opportunities at the free throw line. On the flip side Detroit has been surprisingly poor at the free throw line, and this trend should not be expected to continue.
Boston has shot miserably out from behind the arc in both games against the Pistons. On the other side, the Pistons have taken an unusually high amount of three point shots in both games against the Celtics. In the first game Detroit connected on 45% of their three point attempts, resulting in the necessary counterbalance that allowed Detroit to be in a position to win the game at the end despite their uncharacteristically high number of turnovers. The flip side was true in game 2. Detroit shot 7 for 21 in game 2, but only committed 6 turnovers while forcing Boston into 14 turnovers.
This was an important psychological win for the Celtics. But two sets of statistics where Boston struggled mightily stood out to me for two reasons. (1) Boston really needs to improve on these aspects of the game against elite teams, especially the second aspect. (2) If Boston is 29-3 in spite of these struggles, it is fun to ponder the fact that this Celtics team is still far from playing their best ball this season. The potential is there, at the very least, for the Celtics to ratchet their game up whole another level.
Both Boston and Detroit rank in the top ten for assist ratio*. So though it wasn’t surprising to see Detroit distribute 23 assists, it wasn’t good to see Boston only dish out 14 assists for the game. However, it should be noted that the Celtics took control of the game in the 4th quarter when Glen Davis scored multiple key buckets off assists from the team's leaders, namely Kevin Garnett and especially Paul Pierce. But I will get to him later.
*AST Assist Ratio is the percentage of a team’s possessions that ends in an assist. Assist Ratio = (Assists x 100) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44) + Assists + Turnovers]
Bottom line in mentioning this is that the Celtics various offensive weapons are most effective when coupled with quick and decisive ball movement. The more consistent the Boston Celtics are in this regard, the more success the Celtics will find in competing with any team, but especially the elite.
15-10 was the offensive rebounding advantage held by Boston over Detroit in last night’s game. 35-26 was the defensive rebounding advantage held by Boston over Detroit in last night’s game
How then did Detroit attempt 5 more shots than Boston (79 to 74)?
The answer is turnovers. Simply, Detroit made fewer mistakes; the mark of any truly elite team. Where Detroit committed 6 turnovers, Boston committed 13.
5 shots may not seem a lot, but it is in a close game. 5 additional shots can offer an opponent anywhere from a 1 point advantage to a 15 point advantage. This is significant in a game that was for all intent and purposes a 1 or 2 point game until the closing seconds.
The difference between an elite team and a very good team is that elite teams are usually better at minimizing their mistakes while also exploiting the blunders of their opponent. By Detroit only committing 6 turnovers, Boston wasn’t left much breathing room for many blunders. Unfortunately Boston ended up committing more than double the number of turnovers committed by Detroit. Only through securing themselves second chance opportunities by pulling down offensive rebounds with a vengeance (15 to Detroit’s 10) while also limiting Detroit’s ability to secure their own second chance opportunities by crashing the defensive glass (35-26) were the Celtics able to overcome this often devastating deficit.
I hate to say this, being a Celtics fan and all, but Detroit could have very well had a more convincing win in their December meeting if they hadn’t committed 15 turnovers in the first meeting. But then again each game is different from the other often times.
The point is that making fewer mistakes as a team is one significant area the Celtics need to improve on in order to become a truly elite team. Boston has the 11th worst turnover rate (TOR*) in the league; 14.6% of Boston’s possessions end in a turnover. On one hand John Hollinger’s statistic is negative; on the other hand the Celtics are 29-3 despite this deficiency. It is fun to think how much better the Celtics could be come playoff time if they’re able to improve on their overall efficiency with respect to handling the basketball.
Final note before some numbers… I mentioned above that I am of the opinion that Phoenix, Detroit, and San Antonio are the true elite teams in the NBA at the present time. Below are the 6 teams with the best TOR* in the NBA. Detroit ranks 1st in TOR, while San Antonio and Phoenix rank 5th and 6th respectively.
* TOR - Turnover Ratio is the percentage of a team’s possessions that end in a turnover. Turnover Ratio = (Turnover x 100) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44) + Assists + Turnovers]
RNK-Team-TOR
1 Detroit, 11.3
2 Toronto, 11.4
3 New Orleans, 12.1
4 Golden State, 12.2
5 San Antonio, 12.2
6 Phoenix, 12.4
Game 32 – January 5, 2008 – Boston defeats Detroit, 92-85 - @ Detroit
FG Made-Attempted
31-74 (.419) - Boston
31-79 (.392) - Detroit
2p Made-Attempted
27-58 (.466) - Boston (6 point advantage)
24-58 (.414) - Detroit
3P Made-Attempted
4-16 (.250) -Boston
7-21 (.333) - Detroit (9 point advantage)
FT Made-Attempted
26-33 (.788) -Boston (10 point advantage)
16-23 (.696) - Detroit
Rebounds (Offensive-Total)
15-50 - Boston (5 rebound advantage)
10-36 - Detroit
Rebounds (Defensive-Total)
35-50 - Boston (9 rebound advantage)
26-36 - Detroit
Assists
14 - Boston
23 - Detroit (9 assist advantage)
Turnovers
13 - Boston
6 - Detroit (7 fewer)
NOTES:
Don’t be fooled into thinking that Paul Pierce played poorly against Detroit based on some of the numbers in the box score (5 for 16 shooting from the field and 4 turnovers). Pierce played great last night, especially down the stretch. He may have only scored 19 points, but he pulled down 9 defensive rebounds and dished out 7 assists. I mentioned before that I was impressed by the Celtics performance because you got the sense the Celtics were making significant strides in learning how to beat an elite team as a team. Pierce was a great example of this.
Paul Pierce for years has been responsible for carrying a significant portion of the offensive load. Now he doesn’t have to and as a result Pierce has been steadily becoming a more complete player. Filling in whatever hole the team needs filled. Pierce has impressed many with his previously untapped ability to pass and create at a level never seen before by him.
However despite all the strides that Pierce continues to make I noticed in Boston’s first meeting with Detroit that Pierce, in the 3rd and 4th quarters especially, returned to trying to do it all himself a few times. Most times when he did this he was unsuccessful.
In the 4th quarter this past Saturday I remember watching two unsuccessful possessions by Pierce where he again tried to do too much. Superstars at times will carry their team, but one must be selective and aware that there are different ways to carry one's team. But then Pierce all of a sudden adjusted his game during its most crucial part. Pierce took the ball, drove left and then dished off to an open Glen Davis after drawing Detroit's defense to him. Pierce must have done this at least 3 times in the closing minutes. Instead of trying to take everything on himself individually, Pierce in the final 5 minutes became the ingenious creator for his teammates. Pierce carried his team to victory Saturday night by making everyone else around him better. He in particular was instrumental in making rookie Glen "Big Baby" Davis look like a perennial all-star for at least one quarter anyway. Joking aside, it should be noted that Big Bay totally redeemed himself in his second game against Detroit. He battled Detroit's bigs on the board, provided second chance opportunities for his teammates, and made sure he was in the right spot at the right time. A skill that is often overlooked.
I must admit I questioned Doc’s decision to pull Rondo from the game for Tony Allen. I understood why Doc pulled Rondo, but I worried about Tony Allen’s ball handling on offense. Tony Allen seemed to do what Doc needed him to do on defense, but he turned my fears into a reality by turning the ball over a couple times in the closing minutes. I’m still on the fence as to whether or not I agree with the move, but I respect the guts to pull the trigger because it was clearly an adjustment to what he saw Billups do to Rondo in the post in the 4th quarter of game 1 between Detroit and Boston. It should be noted that Doc’s team won the game & that a couple of those defensive stops that Tony helped to create played a small part in that win.
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Privately, to themselves, Steve Nash and Mike D'Antoni must be thrilled that Shawn Marion was not selected to the big game this season. It is the best thing that could happen to Phoenix's hopes for a successful title run in 07-08. 
